US forces struck two IRGC boats caught laying mines in the Strait and a missile site in Bandar Abbas overnight. CENTCOM called it “self-defense” conducted with “restraint during the ongoing ceasefire.” Iran’s Guard vowed to “respond decisively to any ceasefire violation.” Negotiators were in Qatar when the bombs landed.AP
2.
Rubio said an Iran deal could be finalized “today” but is held up by wording disputes on the nuclear program. Trump: “It will only be a great deal for all, or no deal at all.” Iran’s foreign ministry said “no agreement is imminent.” Three months in and “today” is still moving.Reuters
3.
WTI fell 5.7% to $91 on Iran deal optimism as tankers began moving toward the Strait of Hormuz. S&P futures surged nearly 1%. Oil moved faster than the diplomats.BBG
War & Conflict
4.
Tankers repositioned toward the Strait of Hormuz overnight as deal expectations climbed. Ship-tracking services confirmed movement toward the blockaded waterway for the first time in weeks. The shipping market priced in the deal before Doha’s diplomats could.BBG
5.
Saudi Arabia captured Iran’s lost oil market share during the three-month war. MBS positioned the kingdom as a neutral mediator — winning credits from both Washington and Tehran. MBS sat out the fighting and won the diplomacy.FT
6.
America’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve is shrinking fast. Months of emergency drawdowns have pushed it to levels not seen in decades. The SPR was designed for exactly this scenario. It was not designed to be inexhaustible.EIA
Politics
7.
Trump visits Walter Reed today for his third medical checkup in 13 months. He turns 80 in June. The WH calls it routine. Three checkups in 13 months is a pace of its own.AP
8.
Trump’s disapproval rating hit an all-time high in the RCP average. He began Memorial Day weekend with a 6:15am Truth Social post targeting “radical left lunatics.” The posts aren’t helping the numbers.Fox
Around the World
9.
Pope Leo XIV released “Magnifica Humanitas” — his first encyclical — on Monday. The 43,000-word document warns AI risks “another Tower of Babel” and calls for independent oversight. He warned AI must not stay in “hands of a few.” Silicon Valley was not mentioned by name.WSJ
10.
AOC took formal steps toward a 2028 presidential run, including fundraising activity. She is the first Democrat to move publicly in that direction since Biden’s withdrawal. The primary field has been empty for two years. Someone had to go first.Axios
