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Trump postponed a planned strike on Iran, originally set for Tuesday. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE asked him to hold off for two to three days, saying a deal is “very close.” Three Gulf states vouching for Iran’s good faith. That’s not nothing. AP
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Iran’s Supreme National Security Council publicly launched the Persian Gulf Strait Authority’s official X account Monday, formalizing its two-week-old Hormuz toll regime before a global audience. Ships must now register with the IRGC-backed body and pay fees in Chinese yuan to transit. Iran is building the institution it intends to keep after any deal. Reuters
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Kevin Warsh became Fed Chair on May 15 as the Senate confirmed him 54–45—the most divided vote in the Fed’s modern history. He inherits a 3.5%–3.75% rate, April CPI at a 3-year high, and markets now pricing a 44% chance of a hike by December. The man Trump picked to cut rates may have to raise them. WSJ
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The S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted back-to-back losses Monday. Seagate fell 6.9% after its CEO said building new factories would “take too long” to meet AI demand. Micron dropped 6% on the same fears. The AI trade is still running, but the supply chain is starting to sweat. CNBC
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SpaceX filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC in April and is targeting a June Nasdaq listing at a $1.75 trillion valuation—potentially the largest IPO in US history. Wall Street analysts say it splits the retail investor base currently holding Tesla, which fell 2.9% Monday. For years, Tesla was the only way to own Musk. That ends in six weeks. BBG
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Home Depot reports Q1 before the open this morning. Consensus is $3.41 EPS on $41.5 billion revenue—a 4.2% earnings decline from a year ago. The Pro vs. DIY split and any guidance changes are what traders are watching. CNBC
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Warsh’s 54–45 Senate confirmation was the most divisive in Fed history. Powell stayed on as governor—reportedly pending resolution of a DOJ investigation that’s been put on hold but not closed. There are now two Fed chairs in the building, technically. Fox
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The Republican chairs of both the House and Senate Armed Services committees said they are “very concerned” about the Pentagon’s plan to withdraw roughly 5,000 troops from Germany over the next year. The White House and its own allies on defense are reading the same map differently. Fox
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Japan’s Q1 GDP grew faster than expected on solid export figures. The data came overnight. One major economy is finding the oil shock more navigable than most. Reuters
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Australia’s consumer sentiment rose in May as the Iran oil shock “showed signs” of easing—per the Reserve Bank of Australia, which hiked in May and said it now has time to assess conditions. Consumer sentiment going up while your central bank is hiking takes a particular kind of optimism. Reuters
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