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The Fed hiked rates 25bp to 3.75–4.00%, its first increase since July 2023. Vote was 12-0. The dot plot showed 16 of 18 officials expect another hike this year. Four see two more. CNBC
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The Dow fell 631 points. S&P 500 dropped 0.45%. Both were green before Warsh spoke. CNBC
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The 10-year yield closed at 5.016%, up 2 basis points. First close above 5% since 2007. CNBC
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The Fed raised its 2026 PCE inflation forecast to 3.7%, up from 3.6% in June. Core PCE was lifted to 3.4%. The war is in the numbers now. Fed
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Lennar missed Q3 estimates. Revenue was $8.05 billion versus $8.32 billion expected. Full-year deliveries cut to 80,000–81,000 homes. Reported hours after a rate hike. CNBC
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EIA data showed crude inventories fell 640,000 barrels last week to 423.4 million. API had estimated a 7.1 million barrel build. Off by a factor of eleven. Reuters
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The House passed the Lindsey Graham Russia sanctions bill 262–159. It allows tariffs up to 100% on major buyers of Russian energy and goes to Trump’s desk. Fox
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The House also passed an Iran war powers resolution 220–204. Seven Republicans broke ranks. Two of those seven are in swing districts in Iowa. Fox
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CBO estimated the Iran war has cost the Pentagon $38.1 billion through August 1. Depleted missile stocks could take five years to rebuild. Another $2–3 billion per month if it continues. AP
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10.
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The BOJ begins its two-day meeting today. Markets expect a hike to 1.25%, which would be Japan’s highest rate in 30 years. Reuters
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