The 10-year yield closed above 5% for the first time since 2007

Markets at a Glance

S&P Futs 7,655 ↓0.5%

Gold $4,312 ↓0.9%

Dow Futs 52,516 ↓0.7%

10-Yr 5.00% ↓1bp

WTI $105.15 ↓0.6%

Bitcoin $75,679 ↓0.3%

The Big Stories

1.	The Fed announces its rate decision at 2pm today. Futures price a 94% chance of a 25bp hike to 3.75–4.00%. First hike since July 2023. CNBC

2.	The 10-year yield closed at 5.01% Tuesday after hitting 5.04% intraday. First close above 5% since July 2007. WSJ

3.	WTI settled at $105.83 Tuesday, up more than 4% on the day. Highest settle since May. CNBC

War & Conflict

4.	CENTCOM says Iran struck the tanker El Gaia with a missile and a drone. Iran claims the ship hit a mine. Two crew members are still missing. CENTCOM

5.	Houthis fired missiles and drones at a Saudi air base in Khamis Mushait. Saudi jets launched more than 50 strikes across Yemen in response. Reuters

6.	The Kremlin called Trump’s energy ceasefire “a very good idea.” Then Peskov said lifting sanctions was the second condition, after safe shipping for oil tankers. Zelenskyy says he’ll agree only if Washington guarantees compliance. Reuters

Politics

7.	Bessent told the House that Treasury buybacks kept yields lower than they’d otherwise be. Democrats pointed out yields rose anyway. CNBC

8.	Schumer called for a classified all-Senate briefing on AI risks. Trump called AI safety fears a “hoax” the day before. Fox

Markets & Economy

9.	U.S. diesel hit a record $6.27 per gallon Tuesday per AAA. It was $3.76 when the Iran war started on Feb. 28. Reuters

10.	The BOJ meets Thursday and Friday. Markets expect a hike to 1.25%. That would be Japan’s highest rate in 30 years. BBG

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