Paxton beat Cornyn 63.4% in the Texas Senate Republican runoff. Cornyn’s 24-year Senate career ends in January. Trump endorsed Paxton one week before the vote. The establishment’s preferred candidate never recovered.AP
2.
Trump gathers his Cabinet at Camp David today to discuss Iran deal terms. Iran claimed 25 vessels passed Hormuz overnight; a tanker off Oman reported an explosion. A Cabinet meeting and an explosion at sea. The ceasefire is holding in name only.Reuters
3.
WHO declared the Ebola strain in Congo a global health emergency — third-largest on record. The US is racing to set up a Kenya quarantine facility for exposed Americans. Congo has 906 suspected cases and 223 suspected deaths. The outbreak has crossed into Uganda.WSJ
War & Conflict
4.
The IDF struck more than 100 Hezbollah targets in Lebanon overnight. It was the heaviest Israeli air campaign in southern Lebanon in months. Iran is negotiating in Doha and Israel is bombing Beirut’s south — simultaneously.Reuters
5.
The first Japanese oil tanker to cross Hormuz since the war arrived in Japan. Three LNG tankers also passed through the route in the past 24 hours. The Strait is reopening one tanker at a time — deal or no deal.BBG
6.
A tanker reported an external explosion off Oman’s coast Tuesday. The crew is safe; UKMTO is tracking the incident. Cause unknown. The Strait of Hormuz isn’t the only patch of water getting complicated.Reuters
Politics
7.
OPM proposed a government-wide NDA requiring all 2 million federal workers to sign. The largest federal workers union says employees who refuse could be fired. Federal workers already have secrecy obligations. This one specifically targets leaks to media.BBG
8.
Joe Rogan called Trump’s $1.8 billion DOJ anti-weaponization fund “crazy” and “nuts” on his podcast. The fund killed the Senate’s $72 billion immigration enforcement package last week. When Rogan and Senate Republicans agree on something, the WH might want to notice.Fox
Markets & Economy
9.
WTI closed Tuesday at $91.55 — about 5% below last Friday and 30% off its wartime peak. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 9 basis points to 4.48%. Oil has now given back most of its wartime premium. Bond markets are moving like the deal is done.BBG
10.
S&P futures rose 0.72% Wednesday morning as deal optimism outweighed the Oman tanker incident. Dow futures were up 0.52%. Markets have been pricing in this deal for two weeks. They tend to be right before the press release.BBG
