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Iran suspended peace talks Monday and vowed to “completely block” the Strait of Hormuz. Brent oil surged 7% to $97.28; Trump said “I don’t care.” Iran also announced the Bab el-Mandeb as a new front. Both chokepoints at once. CNBC
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Netanyahu threatened Beirut’s Dahieh district; mass evacuations began in southern Beirut. Trump claimed by evening both sides agreed to stop fighting. Netanyahu said the IDF would continue in southern Lebanon “as planned.” Trump said otherwise. AP
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Iran ordered its Houthi allies to attack the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The waterway carries 15% of global maritime trade. The Houthis last attacked Bab el-Mandeb shipping in 2025. Iran is ordering a restart. AP
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CENTCOM struck radar and command sites on Qeshm Island and in Goruk overnight. Iran called the strikes a ceasefire violation — and further justification for suspending talks. The US struck and Iran walked — in the same 12-hour window. Reuters
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The UN said it is “deeply alarmed” by Israel’s escalating strikes in Lebanon. The World Food Program warned of a “deepening humanitarian emergency” in the country. Neither the ceasefire nor the aid corridors are holding. AP
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Brent hit $97.28 Monday — its war-era high — then pulled back to $94.22 overnight. WTI is trading near $91.50 as markets wait for Washington’s next move. Oil is pricing chaos. The pullback prices in Trump’s promise to keep talking. BBG
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Trump told reporters “I don’t care” as Iran suspended talks. Hours later he posted that negotiations are proceeding at “rapid pace.” He also claimed a direct call with Hezbollah leadership. Both statements came within the same afternoon. Fox
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The Senate returns from recess June 9. Immigration, the Big Beautiful Bill, and Pentagon supplemental funding are all unresolved. Senators have been out two weeks. The pile waiting for them hasn’t gotten smaller. Fox
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The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq closed at records Monday despite Iran escalating. S&P futures fell 0.41% Tuesday as Asian markets reassessed the geopolitical risk. Records through a war, a suspended deal, and two chokepoint threats. Markets are stubborn. BBG
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Dollar General, Palo Alto Networks, and Ulta Beauty report earnings Tuesday. The week’s consumer and enterprise reads come amid the sharpest Iran escalation yet. The Iran war is now in every cost line and every risk model. Earnings season will show who has felt it most. CNBC
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