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The economy added 115,000 jobs in April, nearly double the 62,000 consensus. Unemployment held at 4.3%. Economists had been bracing for the Iran war to show up in the data. It didn't. BLS
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Iran targeted three US warships in the Strait of Hormuz Thursday. The USS Mason was among them. None were hit. The US responded with strikes on military sites in southern Iran and Tehran. The ceasefire is technically still on. Both sides said so. CENTCOM
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Trump is “bored” with the Iran war and looking for any off-ramp he can call a win, an outside adviser told The Atlantic. Republicans facing angry constituents over gas prices are urging speed. He thought it would be another Venezuela. It is not another Venezuela. The Atlantic
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Iran’s Expediency Council publicly rejected the US 14-point framework Thursday, sending WTI back up after a 5% intraday drop on deal hopes. WTI settled at $94.81. Oil fell nearly 15% Wednesday on peace hopes. That was Wednesday. CNBC
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Just 191 vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz in all of April, down from a normal 3,000 per month. The US is now tripling minesweeping operations. Even if a deal is signed, analysts say restoring full traffic could take six months. Reuters
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Trump told reporters “They trifled with us today. We blew them away” after the USS Mason exchange. He added the ceasefire is not over. “If there’s no ceasefire,” he said, “you’re just going to have to look at one big glow coming out of Iran.” Fox
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Trump and congressional Republicans floated suspending the 18.4-cent federal gas tax. National average is $4.55 per gallon, up 52% since the Iran war began. Suspending 18 cents on a $4.55 gallon is a political gesture dressed as economics. Fox
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Kevin Warsh is advancing toward the Fed chair seat, with Powell’s term ending May 15. The Senate is moving toward a confirmation vote. Warsh has called for “regime change” at the Fed and has signaled rates can go lower. Markets are pricing in elevated odds for a rate hike. Warsh wants cuts. Something will have to give. WSJ
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Apple and Intel reached a preliminary chip-manufacturing agreement, the WSJ reported Friday. Intel jumped 15% on the news. The US government — Intel’s largest shareholder — pushed Apple to the table. Apple has shipped over 200 million iPhones a year entirely through TSMC. That’s the arrangement they’re trying to change. WSJ
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University of Michigan consumer sentiment printed 48.2 for early May, a record low. April’s prior reading was already a record swoon. Eight in 10 Americans say gas prices are straining their budgets. The jobs number and the sentiment number are pointing in opposite directions. One of them is right. Reuters
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