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The 30-year Treasury yield briefly hit 5.18% Tuesday—highest since 2007. The 10-year peaked near 4.67%. The S&P fell for a third straight session, settling at 7,353. Three straight losses. Nvidia earnings are still ahead of us. CNBC
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Trump called off a planned Iran strike Monday night. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE asked him to hold off, saying serious talks were underway. Iran has not confirmed any negotiations. Fox
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G7 finance ministers wrapped two days of Paris talks Tuesday. Their communiqué cited supply chain strain and economic uncertainty. Nothing new was announced on Hormuz. France’s finance chief described the sessions as “frank, sometimes difficult.” Reuters
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UBS warned global oil inventories could reach 7.6 billion barrels by end of May—near all-time lows. The IEA added that shrinking buffers raise the risk of future price spikes. The Strait remains effectively closed. BBG
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Saudi Aramco’s CEO said normalization won’t come until 2027. That assumes the Strait stays blocked past mid-June. Aramco processes roughly 10% of the world’s crude. He said his team is watching June closely. CNBC
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Thousands of sailors remain stranded aboard ships stuck inside the Strait of Hormuz. War-risk insurance clauses exclude vessels caught in an active conflict. Companies won’t move without financial backing. WSJ
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Bessent addressed the Paris anti-terror finance conference Tuesday. He pressed G7 allies to adopt tougher Iran sanctions, saying the US too often acts without allied support on counter-financing. No new pledges followed. CNBC
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Kevin Warsh was sworn in as the new Fed chair last Friday, replacing Powell. He inherits inflation at 3.8%, oil above $100, and yields at multi-decade highs. His first FOMC meeting as chair is in June. CNBC
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Nvidia reports Q1 FY2027 earnings after the bell tonight. Analysts expect $79.2 billion in revenue—up 79% year-over-year. The stock has rallied 20% this month. The bar is high. CNBC
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Japan’s Q1 GDP grew at a 2.1% annualized rate, beating the 1.7% consensus. The prior quarter came in at 0.8%. The Iran war began in late February—those numbers aren’t in yet. Reuters
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